SETA Policy Report, February 2011

The constitutional referendum of September 2010 was a historic moment and a milestone in modern Turkey’s democratization journey. Serving as the public’s “final say” on the question of democracy in Turkey and paving the way for a new civilian constitution, the referendum will have far-reaching consequences for civil-military relations, independence of the judicial system, and institutionalization of democracy in Turkey. This study investigates the consequences of the referendum for the shaping of the political scene in Turkey by analyzing the political parties’ campaign strategies, voting patterns, voter preferences, and likely scenarios for the June 2011 general elections.